While the data releases were plentiful, many are made less significant in consideration of the current disruption with the administration and the oncoming inflation data reports with the CPI and PPI arriving next week. The largest and most noteworthy report this time is the Job Report numbers, which will help give a clearer idea on the state of the job market. With the mass federal layoffs, there is much uncertainty, but the labor market is still holding up in light of things. The most pressing data to be released is the predictions for GDP, which has shown to have shown a deflationary value. As long as the inflation data remains consistent then there is little chance the Federal Reserve will consider increasing the interest rates once again. The silver lining in all the reports is the Manufacturing PMI data is noting that the manufacturing sector is still showing strong growth.
Job Reports
The U.S. added a decent 151,000 new jobs in February, but the labor market could soften up in the months ahead as the effects of tariffs, federal spending cuts and mass layoffs of government workers percolate through the economy.
Manufacturing PMI
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded 52.7 in February, up from 51.2 in January. It was the second successive month that the index has pointed to an improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector, with the rate of growth the best since June 2022. Growth was underpinned by noticeable upturns in both production and new orders. There was some evidence that sector expansion was partially driven by advanced purchases ahead of likely price increases and possible supply disruption related to further tariff impositions in the coming months.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.15% with the current rate at 5.79%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.13% with the current rate at 6.63%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.17%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.20%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 221,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 242,000.
What’s Ahead
The major inflationary reports ahead this week with both Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index are expected to come in line with the previous quarters.
