
With the release of the latest CPI and PPI data, inflation has increased month-to-month for the first time since March, marking the first rise in over seven months. The Federal Reserve has reiterated its goal of reducing inflation to a 2% target within a year. While this development doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent interest rate hike, it suggests that current rates may remain unchanged for an extended period. Earlier optimism about a potential rate cut by the end of the year has significantly diminished in light of recent inflation figures and economic data. However, Retail Sales data presents a more positive outlook, showing continued economic growth ahead of the holiday shopping season.
Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index climbed 0.2% for the fourth month in a row, the government said Wednesday, matching the Wall Street forecast. The yearly rate of inflation crept up to 2.6% from 2.4%, marking the first upturn in seven months.
Producer Price Index
The PPI data met expectations overall but revealed that U.S. wholesale prices rose slightly faster in October. This suggests the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation back to low pre-pandemic levels may take longer than anticipated. Federal Reserve officials have described the recent uptick in inflation as a ‘bump,’ which could hinder the central bank from reducing high interest rates as quickly as Wall Street had hoped just a few months ago.
Retail Sales
Sales at retailers rose solidly in October and suggested the economy still has plenty of momentum heading into the holiday shopping season. Sales increased 0.4% last month, the government said Friday, and receipts in September were twice as strong as previously reported.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 5.99%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.78%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.09% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.07% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 221,000.
What’s Ahead
Preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI will be early on the release schedule marking the first large end-of-the-year preliminary report. Following that immediately is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report.
When you’re ready to buy a home, one of the first steps is securing a mortgage. While many people simply turn to their current bank for a loan, there are other options to consider that might provide better rates and terms for your situation.
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If you’re new to homeownership, you might be wondering exactly what makes up the mortgage payment you’re sending each month. Beyond just the loan amount itself, there are several different components that all factor into your monthly mortgage payment. Understanding these components not only helps you see where your money is going but can also assist you in optimizing your mortgage and possibly securing a better rate.
Big inflation reports for the coming week with both CPI and PPI on the schedule. We should expect the data to remain within expectations given the latest reports from both the PCE Index and GDP estimates. The Federal Reserve has still remained hawkish and the last rate decision the expectation is the current rates should maintain. However with the inflation being very close to the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate and the expected “soft landing” on the horizon. The outlook is optimistic for another round of rate cuts in future.
As we take time to honor Veterans Day, we extend our deepest respect and gratitude to the brave men and women who have served our country in uniform. Veterans Day is more than a day of remembrance; it is a chance to reflect on the sacrifices made by those who have protected the freedoms we cherish and to recognize the resilience, dedication, and strength they embody.
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